Buy ITC, LT Stocks: Sumeet Bagadia Picks

Sumeet Bagadia's Top Stock Picks: Buy ITC, Samvardhana Motherson, and LT on Monday Amid Nifty Dip

As trade tensions intensify following President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, Indian benchmark indices have succumbed to prolonged selling pressure, marking a seventh consecutive down session on Friday. The Nifty 50, a key barometer of market health, plummeted from 25,423 to 24,654 over this stretch, shedding more than 750 points or approximately 3% in value. Similarly, the BSE Sensex contracted from 83,013 to 80,426, registering a steeper 2,767-point or 3.33% decline. Factors such as Trump's pharma tariffs, the proposed H-1B visa fee escalation, and the Indian Rupee's depreciation against the US Dollar have collectively weighed on investor confidence, fueling volatility in stocks to buy on Monday and broader market sentiment.

In this environment of uncertainty, seasoned market watchers are scanning for resilient opportunities. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, offers a cautious yet opportunistic lens, highlighting stocks that exhibit technical fortitude amid the chaos. With the Nifty breaching vital support thresholds, Bagadia advises treating any interim bounces as sell signals until firmer ground is reclaimed. For those eyeing long-term value, his curated list of buy recommendations—focusing on ITC, Samvardhana Motherson, and Larsen & Toubro (LT)—presents potential anchors in a stormy sea, blending defensive plays with breakout candidates.

Market Outlook: Nifty Breakdown Signals Weak Sentiment, Per Sumeet Bagadia

The Indian stock market's recent trajectory underscores a palpable shift toward bearishness, with the Nifty 50's decisive drop below the pivotal 24,800 support level amplifying downside risks. Bagadia, drawing from technical chart patterns, posits that the index could probe deeper toward 24,400 to 24,350 in the short horizon, especially as it lingers under 24,700. Immediate buffers emerge at 24,550 to 24,500, while a more robust floor guards 24,300 to 24,250. "Market sentiment has soured with this support fracture," Bagadia remarked. "Traders should view upticks as liquidation chances until the Nifty reclaims 24,900, prioritizing assets with robust technical setups for selective entries."

This outlook resonates with the confluence of external pressures: Trump's pharma tariffs threaten export-heavy sectors, the H-1B visa fee hike squeezes IT margins, and INR weakness erodes corporate earnings in dollar-denominated trades. Yet, amid the gloom, selective stock picks like those from Bagadia offer a pathway for accumulation, particularly in FMCG stalwarts and infrastructure leaders that weather macroeconomic crosswinds with inherent stability. As global cues stabilize—potentially aided by US Fed signals—discerning investors may find these recommendations timely for portfolio diversification.

Bagadia's strategy emphasizes chart-driven decisions, urging vigilance on volume confirmations and key moving averages. In a landscape where broad indices falter, individual stock resilience—evident in consolidation breakouts or base formations—becomes paramount. This approach not only mitigates systemic risks but also capitalizes on sector rotations toward defensives, making his Monday buy calls a focal point for intraday and swing traders alike.

ITC Stock Recommendation: Buy at ₹405 with Target ₹430 and Stop Loss ₹390

ITC, the diversified conglomerate synonymous with consumer goods and tobacco, emerges as Bagadia's premier defensive pick amid market turbulence. Trading proximate to ₹405, the stock is engineering a tentative recovery post-correction, buoyed by fresh accumulation near the ₹390-₹395 trough. This rebound hints at base-building potential, positioning ITC as a haven for risk-averse portfolios seeking stability in volatile times.

Technically, ITC grapples with overhead resistance from its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), underscoring a prevailing downtrend. Nonetheless, proximity to these hurdles—coupled with a decisive close above the 20-day EMA—could ignite reversal signals. A breach beyond the 50-day EMA would solidify bullish conviction, propelling shares toward swing highs. Conversely, the ₹390 threshold anchors downside protection, ideal for stop-loss placement to curb losses if sentiment sours further.

Sustained trading above ₹410-₹415, validated by escalating volumes, charts a trajectory to ₹430—a confluence of prior peaks and Fibonacci extensions. ITC's inherent strengths, from resilient FMCG demand to steady agri-business inflows, align with this technical narrative, rendering it a compelling buy on Monday for those navigating Nifty weakness. Investors should monitor rural consumption cues, as they could amplify upside if monsoon recovery bolsters volumes.

Samvardhana Motherson Buy Call: Target ₹113 from ₹105 Entry, SL at ₹102

Auto ancillary heavyweight Samvardhana Motherson International rounds out Bagadia's selections with nascent bullish cues, hovering around ₹105 after a period of sideways drift. Support absorption in the ₹102-₹103 band has sparked buyer resurgence, indicative of undervalued positioning in a sector poised for EV and export-led revival.

From a charting perspective, the stock aligns favorably with clustered EMAs between ₹100-₹104, forging a solid foundation. Trading atop the 20-day EMA at ₹104.40 signals preliminary strength; a volume-backed push past ₹107-₹108 could catalyze acceleration to ₹113, mirroring antecedent resistance clusters. Downside vigilance centers on ₹102, a breach of which might retest ₹98-₹99, underscoring its stop-loss efficacy.

Recent volume spikes during upticks bolster the case for entry at ₹105, with Bagadia eyeing this as a swing trade gem. Samvardhana Motherson's global footprint in wiring harnesses and vision systems, amid automotive electrification trends, underpins fundamental appeal. As supply chain snarls ease, this pick could outperform broader indices, offering leveraged exposure to industrial rebound narratives.

LT Shares: Breakout Buy at ₹3729, Aiming ₹4000 with SL ₹3600

Larsen & Toubro (LT), the engineering behemoth, caps Bagadia's trio with a textbook breakout from an ascending triangle on daily timeframes, trading near ₹3,729. Weeks of coiling between ₹3,600-₹3,720 have yielded to bullish conviction, amplified by surging volumes that affirm institutional interest.

This pattern resolution extends the overarching uptrend, marked by ascending lows since August and adherence to primary support trendlines. The RSI's surge past 60 corroborates momentum, while the ₹3,720 horizontal lid's capitulation unlocks higher tiers. ₹3,600 fortifies the base, doubling as a prudent stop-loss to safeguard against false alarms.

Bagadia's ₹3,729 entry targets ₹4,000, a psychologically resonant milestone that, if breached on close, could unleash multi-week extensions. LT's order book swell in infra, hydrocarbons, and defense—fueled by capex cycles—synergizes with technicals, positioning it as a momentum darling. For Monday traders, this setup promises alpha in a risk-off milieu, contingent on capex policy continuity.

Strategic Insights: Navigating Trade Tensions with Selective Stock Picks

Bagadia's recommendations transcend mere technicals, embedding macroeconomic resilience. ITC's consumer moat counters cyclical woes, Samvardhana Motherson taps auto upcycles, and LT rides infra surges—diversifying across defensives and cyclicals. In a Nifty-constrained backdrop, these stocks to buy on Monday September 29 2025 embody prudent risk-reward, with stop-losses tempering exposures.

Broader context includes INR stabilization prospects and trade deal whispers that could blunt tariff barbs. Investors should layer entries on pullbacks, prioritizing volume and EMA adherence for conviction. As markets grapple with global ripples, Bagadia's framework empowers tactical navigation, blending caution with opportunity in equal measure.

Ultimately, while indices languish, selective accumulation in structurally sound names like these fosters portfolio ballast. Vigilance on US policy evolutions remains key, but for September 29, these calls spotlight value amid the dip.

(Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Views and recommendations reflect those of the named analyst or firm, not the publisher. Consult certified experts before investing, as markets evolve swiftly and individual situations differ.)